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Researcher says Republicans hold significant advantage in early voting turnout

Derek Ryan also says young voters didn’t vote early as often as they did in 2020

DALLAS — If anyone was wondering if Republican primary voters would wait until election day to cast their vote, they have a resounding answer.

A considerable amount of those voters showed up during early voting, building a significant advantage over Democratic primary voters to the tune of hundreds of thousands, according to researcher Derek Ryan.

“There does seem to be an enthusiasm level amongst the Republican voters that isn’t necessarily matched by the Democratic primary voters,” Ryan said on Inside Texas Politics.

Derek Ryan runs Ryan Data & Research out of Austin, a firm that provides research and data to Republican campaigns at the local, state and federal levels.

200 candidates in, Ryan’s clients have a 72% win rate.

And from his perspective, Texas Democrats are facing another problem: young voter turnout is lagging as well.

“Voters age 18 – 29, really they’re only making up about 12% of all of the votes that were cast during early voting. That’s actually down compared to where it was four years ago. Four years ago, they made up about 14, 15% of all the votes that had been cast,” Ryan said.

On election night, Ryan says he’ll be watching some large suburban counties such as Willamson outside of Austin and Fort Bend outside of Houston.

He says if Democrats want a chance, they have to win those counties outright and with significant numbers.

Ryan says he’ll also keep a close eye on Tarrant County, the most purple of the state’s five largest counties.

“This is a county that Trump lost in 2020, but Cornyn won. In 2018, Cruz lost the county. Of the five largest counties in the state, that’s the one that Republicans still have a shot of winning. So, I’ll be watching the margins there,” the researcher said.

He thinks, ultimately, the early vote will make up 75% of the overall vote.

Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5.

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