As of Thursday, Jan. 11, the forecast shows temperatures falling to near 10 degrees for early next week.
Currently, the coldest models are showing temperatures falling to near 0 degrees although these can be considered anomalies or outliers, far from what most models are showing.
Historically speaking, this arctic blast doesn't appear to be too unusual. In fact, the coldest West Texas got on average for any given year is right around 11 degrees.
Every single year since 1931, the Permian Basin has fallen to at least 24 degrees at some point with 75% of those years seeing a temperature of 16 degrees or colder.
As mentioned, about 50% of West Texas winters, going back to 1931, have seen a temperature of 11 degrees or colder. So, temperatures are expected to get this cold about every other year or so.
Falling into the single digits is a little more rare around the Permian Basin. About a quarter of the recorded winters have temperatures dropping to eight degrees or colder.
Only 10% of winters have temperatures dropping to two degrees or lower.
In February of 2021, there was a recorded low temperature of -2 degrees, which is in the top 5% coldest annual low temperatures in recorded history. West Texas can expect an arctic blast like February 2021 about once every 20 to 30 years, while the one in the forecast for next week seems to occur around every two years.
Again, this winter blast doesn't look too unusual and it doesn't look like the Permian Basin is going to see any power outages or significant impacts, especially in the area. It's still, however, a good idea to get the home prepared for some decently cold weather.