TODAY: The first half of Friday calls for calmer conditions with cloud cover starting to be present. Weather Impact Alert is activated due to the potential Severe Threat and scattered storms across the region into the overnight hours. As suspected from discussions of yesterday, the recent SPC Marginal Risk has shifted slightly north with more dominance over Eddy and Lea County and Northern Western part of the Permian Basin. I still wouldn't rule out a thunderstorm or potential severe storm just south of the Marginal Risk but overall, the risk has decreased at least from what it was yesterday for the more southern portions of the basin. Activity calls for possible small-moderate hail with higher winds up to 60mph gusts. The timing of these systems is approximately ~5PM-7PM with activity possible into the overnight hours. Temperatures throughout though will be in the mid to upper 70's with still pleasant conditions with a bit of wind present SE 10-20mph.
HIGH: 75°
WINDS: S/SE 10-15
TOMORROW: Weather Impact Alert for most of the Permian Basin which is under currently a Slight Risk from the Storm Predication Center for the Central Portions of the Basin. It had a slight northward shift as expected with the slight risk not as dominant in the southern portions of the Basin. I don't suspect any more major shifts, at least so far, that would give us any reason for some areas to be "out of the clear". A Marginal risk still is present throughout much of the basin which the main threat for the Marginal risk is small-moderate hail with winds up to 60mph gusts+. Under the slight risk, the hail risk significantly increased due to accelerated updrafts that will be possible to produce large hail up to 2in+ in diameter. All factors are at play with a severe wind risk up to 60mph gusts+, significant hail, and a small Tornado risk within the slight risk with an isolated tornado or two possible. The timing of these systems should be during ample primetime daytime heating around 2PM until Midnight possible. These systems are expected to possibly be long lasting and traversing throughout west to east.
HIGH: 75°
LOW: 63°
WINDS: SE 10-20 (Potentially higher depending on storm timings)
Severe Risks heading into Saturday. We are under a significant hail risk heading into Saturday which tops off the SPC severe scale. We have possibilities of large to severe hail up to 2in+ in diameter possible. I won't rule out the isolated tornado or two within the slight risk so when we get closer to Saturday. keep phone alerts on and stay with the latest updates with NewsWest9.
LOOKING AHEAD: There currently post a Marginal risk and a slight risk for the Northeastern Countys of the Permian Basin. I suspect this to likely change but it is something to still keep an eye on. The timing of the trough traversing to play a major factor in timing if we could see Severe activity for Sunday. More details will be present once we get more of an idea of how the weather pattern could adjust to give us that potential severe factor. Heading into the week though, another cold front will be present Monday bringing a nice drop in temperatures into the mid to upper 60's with lows in the 40's possible across the region. Rain chances stay minimal throughout the week until near next Thursday and Friday where we could possibly see some rain chances. We will be actually below our average temperatures heading into next week so enjoy these temperatures. Windy conditions will persist as the cold front makes its passage during Monday with gusts up to 30mph+
Saturday: 60% chance for showers and mostly cloudy with highs near 75°.
Sunday: 30% chance for showers and mostly cloudy with highs near 77°.
Monday: 20% chance for showers and mostly cloudy with highs near 67°.
Tuesday: Sunny with highs near 65°.
Wednesday: Sunny with highs near 73°.
Thursday: 10% chance for showers and mostly sunny with highs near 60°.
